The first big World Cup shocker? Why Morocco could beat Brazil

One of the most promising group stage fixtures of this World Cup will see Brazil and Morocco clash in New Jersey on Saturday, with both teams targeting a deep run. As five-time former winners and general behemoths of the international game, Brazil are 4/7 favourites to open their World Cup campaign with three points. Nobody would be surprised if Carlo Ancelotti’s team started on the front foot. And yet the price of 7/2 for a Moroccan upset is attractive considering the quality of the 2022 World Cup semi-finalists.

It’s far from a foregone conclusion that Saturday’s match will end in victory for the Selecao. Brazil enter the 2026 World Cup on the back of a far from convincing qualification campaign which saw them finish a lowly fifth. Had it not been for the expanded format, their place at the tournament would have been at risk. Morocco, on the other hand, qualified with eight wins from eight games — and backed this up by reaching the final of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations. They were beaten in the game but awarded the trophy after CAF retrospectively stripped Senegal of the title following their walk-off during the final. Either way, Morocco demonstrated true quality.

Since then, Mohamed Ouahbi has replaced Walid Regragui as national team manager, and the early indications are that he will continue to build on the solid foundations left behind by his predecessor. Indeed, Morocco’s performance in Sunday’s final warm-up match against Norway was impressive. While the game finished 1-1, it was the northern Africans who played with the most assurance for the most part, limiting Erling Haaland to just four touches — his lowest number in a match for club or country since 2019.

Just as they did in their run to the semi-finals in 2022, Morocco set up to play in quick transition. They kept a low line of confrontation but collapsed on Norway when they could in the centre of the pitch before breaking out quickly on the counter. This strategy was evident in Brahim Diaz’s opening goal, which came from Abde Ezzalzouli winning the ball inside his own half, surging 40 yards forward on the dribble to set up the Real Madrid playmaker for a finish inside the Norwegian penalty area.

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Will Brazil have the legs in central midfield to prevent Morocco from getting on their bike in such a way when they clash at MetLife Stadium this weekend? Or will the African champions (by default) pick them off like they did to Norway and several opponents during their incredible 2022 semi-final run? While Morocco demonstrated their threat down the left side against Norway, it’s on the right wing where they could do the most damage to Brazil. That’s where Achraf Hakimi operates, with the Paris Saint-Germain full-back given the freedom to get forward whenever possible. Hakimi’s fitness for the World Cup was in doubt not so long ago, as he missed a series of matches for PSG towards the end of the season. However, the 27-year-old returned for the Champions League final win over Arsenal and played the full 120 minutes, including extra time.

Morocco’s biggest weakness remains breaking down opponents intent on sitting in a low defensive block. This was evident more than once at the 2025 AFCON, when the hosts struggled for creativity in the final third when asked to play with the ball. However, this might be one of the things that could make Saturday’s match against Brazil a favourable tactical match-up. While Ancelotti may not go all-out attack in his team’s opening World Cup fixture, he won’t set Brazil up to defend deep. There will be open space for Morocco to exploit.

By making an unexpected run to the semi-finals in Qatar, Morocco provided one of the defining storylines of the last World Cup. If anything, though, their squad for the 2026 tournament in the USA, Canada, and Mexico looks to be even stronger. Diaz, for example, is now part of the Moroccan set-up, when in 2022 he was still considered Spanish. Chadi Riad has broken through as a reliable defensive option at Premier League level, while Chemsdine Talbi is another youngster capable of making a difference.

On talent alone, Brazil will still have the edge over Morocco, even if Ancelotti is lacking the sheer number of superstars that were available to some of his Selecao predecessors. This is, after all, a team that boasts the likes of Vinicius Junior, Raphinha, and Gabriel Magalhaes. In Morocco, though, Brazil will face an opponent with a clear style of play and steadfast belief in what they’re being asked to do. Saturday’s encounter in New Jersey could be one of the most captivating of this World Cup’s entire group stage.

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