World Cup Odds and Picks for Monday’s Knockout Games

The knockout stage of the World Cup hits full gear on Monday with three matches, including a couple of games that have some juice. Brazil takes on Japan in an enticing first game of the day, while the Netherlands and Morocco meet in one of the more balanced matchups of the round.

Here’s a look at the storylines and odds for Monday’s tripleheader, plus some picks from our betting staff.

Brazil-Japan
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston
Brazil is the biggest brand name of any national team in the sport, but has the team looked like Brazil so far? The 1-1 draw against a strong Morocco team wasn’t especially convincing, but 3-0 wins against Haiti and Scotland looked more like what we expect from Brazil.

However, Japan resembles Morocco more than it does Haiti or Scotland. The Samurai Blue only allowed 23 shots in three group matches, tied for fifth-fewest, and those shots totaled an expected goal count of 1.48, second only behind Spain’s paltry 0.54 in that stat.

Keeping Brazil in check is no easy feat, but Japan did manage a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, another team loaded with attacking talent.

Brazil is without forward Raphinha due to injury, which is a massive blow. Vinícius Júnior has four goals and is one of three players to score in all three group games (along with Lionel Messi and Morocco’s Ismael Saibari), so Brazil is still dangerous, but he will have less help.

The Seleção are around -300 (1-to-3) to advance, so this would still be a massive upset, but Japan is being given a chance.

Germany-Paraguay
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
Germany is the biggest favorite of the day, which says more about how even the other two matches are. Paraguay had a terrible start to its World Cup with a 4-1 loss to the United States, but rebounded with a win against Turkey and a 0-0 draw against Australia, which got both teams through to this round.

The Germans clinched their group with a game to spare and lost 2-1 to Ecuador in the last group game with nothing to play for. Will there be a carryover effect?

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Believe it or not, Germany hasn’t made it to the final 16 of a World Cup since winning in 2014. From 2002-2014, Germany made at least the semifinals at four straight World Cups. The Germans hadn’t failed to make the quarterfinals since 1938. Two straight group-stage exits have shaken the confidence of what had been arguably the most consistent national team on the planet. While a win against Paraguay could easily be taken for granted (Germany is -900 or 1-to-9 to advance), it would mean a step towards getting Germany back to its best.

Paraguay will get midfielder Miguel Almirón back after he served his red-card suspension against Australia.

Netherlands-Morocco
Time: 9 p.m. ET
TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)
Venue: Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Mexico
Netherlands won its group, but only got a modest reward. Morocco made it to the semifinals in 2022 and appears to be strong again, getting seven points from a group that included Brazil.

The Dutch are one of three teams to score 10 goals in the group stage (Germany and France are the other two), but did so on 5.24 expected goals. That gap between goals scored and expected goals is the biggest of any team in the group stage. Is that luck or quality finishing? Either way, the Netherlands attack has looked lethal.

Brian Brobbey (three goals), Cody Gakpo (two goals) and Donyell Malen will give Morocco’s back line plenty to worry about. In 2022, Morocco got through Spain and Portugal without giving up a goal. Keeping the Netherlands off the scoresheet would be equally impressive.

The Dutch are favored, but this is the closest match of the day on paper. DraftKings has the Netherlands at -170 to advance while giving Morocco +130 odds.

Best bets
Dan Santaromita: Netherlands-Morocco over 2.5 goals (regulation), +116 (FanDuel)
Betting on the over in a knockout game seems almost reckless, but I’m not sure it’s in the DNA of this Dutch team to play conservatively. They have really good attacking talent, and Morocco is dangerous enough as well. I think this is a 2-1 game either way.

Mike Hume: Morocco win in regulation, +270 (FanDuel)
The Dutch aren’t going to be an easy out, but Morocco is no pushover, and at this price, I like the value. Morocco played Brazil to a draw, and I believe they can prevail here.

Dean Jones: Brazil to win by exactly 1 goal, +260 (bet365)
Brazil’s two group wins were easy. When they faced a trickier opponent in the shape of Morocco, they struggled a bit. Japan are close to that level and will work tirelessly to make this a close game. Brazil should edge it, but a one-goal margin is easy to imagine.

Vik Chokshi: Florian Wirtz to score or assist in regulation, -115 (DraftKings)
With Germany as the biggest favorite on the Monday slate, I looked for other ways to attack the match, and this bet in particular stood out. I anticipate the Germans being all business in this one, and I expect Wirtz to be a big part of that. He already has a couple of assists in this tournament and will have plenty of opportunities in the open field against Paraguay’s defense. I get a little better odds in regulation, but I’ll take it, because this won’t go to extra time.

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