World Cup Odds and Picks for Monday’s Knockout Games

The knockout stage of the World Cup hits full gear on Monday with three matches, including a couple of games that have some juice. Brazil takes on Japan in an enticing first game of the day, while the Netherlands and Morocco meet in one of the more balanced matchups of the round.

Here’s a look at the storylines and odds for Monday’s tripleheader, plus some picks from our betting staff.

Brazil-Japan
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston
Brazil is the biggest brand name of any national team in the sport, but has the team looked like Brazil so far? The 1-1 draw against a strong Morocco team wasn’t especially convincing, but 3-0 wins against Haiti and Scotland looked more like what we expect from Brazil.

However, Japan resembles Morocco more than it does Haiti or Scotland. The Samurai Blue only allowed 23 shots in three group matches, tied for fifth-fewest, and those shots totaled an expected goal count of 1.48, second only behind Spain’s paltry 0.54 in that stat.

Keeping Brazil in check is no easy feat, but Japan did manage a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, another team loaded with attacking talent.

Brazil is without forward Raphinha due to injury, which is a massive blow. Vinícius Júnior has four goals and is one of three players to score in all three group games (along with Lionel Messi and Morocco’s Ismael Saibari), so Brazil is still dangerous, but he will have less help.

The Seleção are around -300 (1-to-3) to advance, so this would still be a massive upset, but Japan is being given a chance.

Germany-Paraguay
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
Germany is the biggest favorite of the day, which says more about how even the other two matches are. Paraguay had a terrible start to its World Cup with a 4-1 loss to the United States, but rebounded with a win against Turkey and a 0-0 draw against Australia, which got both teams through to this round.